• 13 hours Three Stocks To Watch Ahead Of Earnings Season
  • 17 hours Markets Flat As Bulls And Bears Battle It Out
  • 19 hours The Mining Industry Still Has a Human Rights Problem
  • 2 days 5 Billionaires Booted From Their Own Companies
  • 2 days Can Toyota's Hydrogen Car Take On Tesla?
  • 3 days Why Universal Basic Income Won't Work
  • 4 days Is This The Real Golden State?
  • 4 days Blockchain Firm Pushes For Ethical Mining
  • 5 days America’s Working Class Are Footing All The Bills
  • 5 days Market Volatility Sends Investors Scrambling Into This Asset Class
  • 5 days How Much Energy Would It Take To Power The Death Star?
  • 6 days A Tweet About Hong Kong Could Cost The NBA $4 Billion
  • 6 days World's Largest Miner Doubles Down On Renewables
  • 6 days Nasdaq Cracks Down On Small Chinese IPOs
  • 7 days Is There Any Reason To Be Bullish About Netflix?
  • 7 days Precious Metals See Record Inflows As Investors Hedge Against Teetering Economy
  • 7 days NYU Professor: Tesla Could Lose 80% Of Its Value
  • 8 days Uber To Offer On Demand Employment
  • 8 days SoftBank Reeling After Questionable WeWork Investment
  • 8 days Opportunity Arises In The Democratic Republic Of Congo
Is There Any Reason To Be Bullish About Netflix?

Is There Any Reason To Be Bullish About Netflix?

Netflix’ FAANG days are rather…

Markets Flat As Bulls And Bears Battle It Out

Markets Flat As Bulls And Bears Battle It Out

The second week of October…

Three Stocks To Watch Ahead Of Earnings Season

Three Stocks To Watch Ahead Of Earnings Season

It’s Q3 earnings time, with…

Frank Holmes

Frank Holmes

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Investing
  3. Stocks

Gold Mining Stocks Are Soaring

Gold Stocks

Bond yields are crashing in major markets all around the world as fears of a global economic slowdown have prompted investors to seek shelter in low-risk government debt. Both Germany and Japan’s 10-year bond yields are back below zero, marking the first time we’ve seen German yields turn negative since October 2016. As I shared with you last week, the pool of negative-yielding bonds around the globe now stands at a post-2017 high of $9.32 trillion. Yields in Australia and New Zealand have also fallen to record lows, according to Bloomberg.

(Click to enlarge) 

The Yield Curve Just Inverted. Time to Get Defensive?

Here in the U.S., the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen to a more-than-one-year low on a dovish Federal Reserve. As you no doubt know by now, late last week, one very important part of the yield curve inverted for the first time since late 2006. On Tuesday morning, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.43 percent, compared to 2.46 percent for the 3-month Treasury—a small but meaningful spread of negative 3 basis points.

(Click to enlarge) 

A yield curve inversion indicates that investors are anticipating a rate cut in the near future, which itself is a possible sign that economic growth is slowing. As such, inversions have been among the most reliable forecasters of recessions—at least here in the U.S., where each of the past seven recessions were preceded by an inversion.

Gold Stocks Have Traded Inversely to Treasury Yields

Responding to this development, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson told CNBC this week that investors should “remain defensively positioned.” Related: What's The Federal Reserve's Next Move?

One of the best defensive positions, I believe, is gold bullion and gold mining stocks, which in the past have traded inversely to yields. When yields have risen, indicating less demand for a safe haven, gold prices have sunk. And when yields have fallen, indicating a risk-off sentiment, gold prices have climbed.

Take a look below. What the chart shows is the inverse relationship between gold mining stocks and the real 10-year Treasury yield—“real” meaning inflation-adjusted. As you can see, gold stocks soared in the summer of 2016 as yields deteriorated and finally dipped below zero.

(Click to enlarge) 

Today, yields are similarly on a downward path, boosting gold stocks. Year-to-date through March 26, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up more than 10 percent.

But will yields turn negative? I can’t say for sure, of course. What I can say is that gold and gold mining stocks have historically been a good place to be positioned when economic fears pushed down bond yields.

By Frank Holmes

More Top Reads From conil.me:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment